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Landau an der Isar, Kempten and Pfarrkirchen – these small towns may be unfamiliar to English, and indeed many German, ears. But they could determine the future migration policy of Europe. Who comes out top in a mere handful of constituencies in rural Bavaria in the German general election tomorrow will decide whether the next Berlin government will be serious about controlling immigration.

Friedrich Merz and his party won, Elon Musk didn’t seem to move voters, and more lessons from an early German vote with big implications for Europe.

Conservative leader Friedrich Merz won a lackluster victory, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded his center-left Social Democrat party’s worst postwar defeat.