The former president fell below a 40 percent chance of winning the election in the latest update to FiveThirtyEight's ...

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most ...

It goes without saying that the polls have shifted a lot since mid-July, when President Biden was well behind Trump. Since ...

As a result, on Monday, Sept. 16, Harris's chance of winning the election according to 538's forecasting model reached 61-in-100 — surpassing her previous high from Aug. 26. If we look at all ...

Before Tuesday, November 5, when polling stations open, several million Americans will have already cast their votes through ...

According to experts, the six states to watch are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Election prediction models are not like polls — and Silver's Trump odds are not all that different from others ...

The results of the last six presidential elections in North Carolina compared with the national popular vote. 538 photo illustration But as the chart above shows, the fast-growing, racially ...

Kamala Harris has increased her lead over Donald Trump in most polls, with a popular vote advantage of 2 to 7 points. Trump ...

Forecast previously showed that former President Donald Trump would win in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

We’re less than 50 days out from the 2024 presidential election and for weeks, the polls have shown Vice President Kamala ...